Sunday, May 20, 2018

Understanding the Dice

Hello again, today I am going to talk math. Dice are an important part of Guild Ball, and make for an exciting yet random outcome. Casinos always win by stacking the odds in there favour, doing the same techniques we can position ourselves better to win at guild ball. If we are able to use the power of math to understand the dice, we can choose better targets which leads to forming better plans.

First lets delve into the math around kicking. Players that roll more dice are better at kicking the ball, right? That assumption is correct but the difference between rolling 4 dice compared to 5 dice isn't noticeable (93.8% compared to 96.9%). Using the chart below, we can know the percentage for success for scoring a goal (or completing a pass)

  # of dice  normal TN      Tap In     + 1 TN
1 50 66.7 33.3
2 75 88.9 55.6
3 87.5 96.3 70.4
4 93.8 98.8 80.2
5 96.9 99.686.8
6 98.4 99.991.2
If you want to do your best to ensure the goal, stacking more dice will raise the certainty of a successful goal. The best way to raise the certainty of a goal is by reducing the TN, and to defend against a goal you want to try and increase the TN while reducing their dice pool. Most of the time I aim my dice pool to be between 3-5 dice when shooting a goal because I can live that high of a percentage for success. If I am in a position where missing the goal will put me in a bad spot, I try to get as many dice as possible. If you are getting behind in a game, taking a two dice shot is still a great option for getting back into the game.

The dice math for attacking is more complex, but I look at it with a more simple approach. 

TN                 Percentage
6+ 16.7
5+ 33.3
4+ 50.0
3+ 66.7
2+ 83.3

Looking at the percentages for successful outcomes at each defense value, we can predict the amount of success we should get. 
Lets look at an example of this. Honour is TAC 6 so she is rolling 6 dice for an attack against Tapper who is a 3/1. On those six dice she rolled two-thirds (66.7%) so Honour should get four dice being higher than a 3, but we have to take away 1 success because of Tappers arm. So Honour is left with 3 net successes.  
So if we take the Player we are using to attack TAC and multiply is by the percentage of expected outcomes, we are given an idea of what our player can do. Certain players have efficiencies built into there playbook to help boost there output if they can reach a certain part of there playbook. Fillet, Tapper, and Veteran Decimate are great examples of this.

Fillet really wants to attack a bleeding target. If no one on the other team is bleeding, she has to do it herself (usually the scenario on turn 1). In a classic butcher v fish, fillet kicked off which brought Sakana forward to retrieve the ball. So with only that one target to go for, Fillet goes in. At TAC 8 attacking a 4/1, Fillet should get 4 success, which leads to 3 net hits which is short of her blood rain to bleed Sakana. If she rolls slightly above average Fillet gets her blood rain and is happy, but we don't like to be in the position when odds are not in our favour. If Fillet charges she has a dice pool of 12, which would result in 6 successes which is 5 net hits which gets us our blood rain. However, if Sakana uses defensive stance to a 5/1, Fillets 12 dice should result in 4 successes, which again puts us outside where we want to be. This was a bad example to look at because with tooled up Fillet should hit her Momentous 2 up to 3 every time, which will takeout Sakana without the blood rain.

Tapper, like all brewers, wants to wrap on his first attack for commanding aura and a knockdown. His charge can be the difference between him setting up the team or getting a take out. So lets look at Tapper attacking Brick. Tapper charges because he wants to have the most dice to get him to his Knockdown and commanding aura. Taps has a dice pool of 10 attacking a 2/2. He should only get around 8 successes for 6 net hits which leaves him short of getting commanding aura and a knockdown. The Masons player should ensure that this doesn't happen by using defensive stance to make Tappers activation less efficient.

Veteran decimate is the new hotness, that has turned a few heads. Having knockdown and stagger on the same playbook result can swing the dice heavily. Given bag of quaffers on Decimate to bring her up to Tac 7. Attacking the game average of 4/1 defensive stats on a charge, decimate will get 5 to 6 success on average which will get her the KD+stagger. Now that 4/1 player is effectively a 2/0 model to decimate, which will give her about 33% more success on the following two attacks and for the rest of the brewers.

Playing with an idea of what to expect from every model should give you an advantage. But, dice are random and can roll higher or lower than you expected at any point. Using the expected results of the dice can help you put your opponent in a position where the odds are stacked against them. When you use this information to help form a plan on the pitch you should plan pessimistically. This means that if the dice math says you should get a certain outcome, you should plan that you will fall short on an attack. For example if a player is on 4 hit points and you have a model with 2 damage on three hits, plan that you won't hit the two damage a couple times rather then he should hit his two damage every time. It is better to play where the dice do not matter and that you can guarantee an action on the pitch.

Controlling tilt caused by dice is another key to success. Attacking in this game is binary, the dice roll is either a success or a miss. If our player has a defense of three, and the opponent rolls all sixes for his successes. The result being a six doesn't change that it was a hit. In my last game against a local practice partner, tower counter attacked Jaecar rolling 4 sixes and a one so we just cheered out Yahtzee. Never blame dice for anything that happens, there is always a different option that could have been taken throughout the game that may have given you a better opportunity or given the opposition more difficulty. 

Wednesday, May 16, 2018

Threat Assessment

Guild Ball is an open information and open measurement game. At anytime during the game we can reference the rules on players cards and measure anything that we please. After enough games and reading of cards in your spare time, you will pick up on trends on which players do what. Knowledge is power, and being able to assess what players across the pitch is going to be most threatening is a valuable skill to develop. Different types of threats to look out for are goals scoring, or players that fight well. Some players, mainly captains, do both incredibly well at the same time.

The goal threats are most easily identified. If a striker has the ball we can add together sprint+kick+buy able dodges or free movement buffs = total goal threat.
Lets look at Mist for an example:

Sprint 8+ Kick 8+ Acrobatic 2+ Cover of Darkness 2 = 20 inch Goal threat. This could be more if mist is near a Solthecian for shadow like or has influence to dodge off of a player or is near fast ground.

It is really hard to stop a striker trying to score a goal if they have the ball already. You can try and take the ball away from them with another player, but sometimes you have to accept that Mist is going to score that goal and set up to score in return or protect the ball from another goal run. It is easier to protect against a player that has to tackle the ball then score. Using our Mist example it takes him 2-3 influence to move 12 inches leaving one influence to tackle and not enough to shoot. So if we are out of sprint + melee range with our ball carrier (10 inches with Mist) the goal run is not super efficient and might fail. Mist would have to spend 2 influence to get into melee with our ball carrier, spend 1 more influence to tackle. If we have a momentum to counter attack and tackle the ball back or knock mist down the goal run just failed, if Mist is not within 8 of the goal after the tackle the goal run just failed. Because we have access to our opponents stat cards we can reference the threat ranges of their strikers to protect the ball.

To identify which players are the going to be dealing out damage look for models with higher TAC with large top end damage results, low momentous damage results, or short playbooks that lead to wraps. Its best to use distance to protect our self turn 1, then later on forming a favourable scrum or with a control player to limit their output. If the player that dishes out a lot of damage is weak to counter attacks only having a player with a low 2 inch reposition on their play book is incredibly strong.
Lets look at a few examples:

Jaecar of the hunters guild is notorious for being an incredible beater. If I am playing Blacksmiths, I want to present Jaecar with a situation where the only player in his threat Range is Iron in isolation. Jaecar can do one attack before Iron's counter attack does a double push (extremely reliable with it on one success at TAC 6). As a result this wastes the remaining influence on Jaecer. The Hunters player can play around these results with Jaecar however, if there is a model within 3 inches jaecar can bounce off iron with a momentous 2 damage double dodge into a different blacksmith model to avoid being counter attacked, then bounce back into iron to put more damage into the apprentice. The blacksmith player can live with this happening because it spreads and limits Jaecars damage potential.

We can't talk about mitigating damage without taking about the butchers guild. Boar can do copious amounts of damage if we let him get to a player. To protect against furious it is best to have a player engaged with them. This is easier said then done because sticking an unprotected model near the butchers will lead to an easy take out. We want to stay 8 inches away from boar as long as possible, (sprint 8 + melee 2) so that he can't get his free charge into our team. After the first couple of turns it should be safe to have a player go babysit boar, two players would be better. Some guilds can play this differently, if we have access to blind it shortens boars threat range and limits his output significantly. Using blacksmiths again Ferrite can disarm Boar then use get over here Iron so boar has -3 to his dice pool on an attack.

Most teams bring along multiple models that apply the same threat to make it harder to protect against it all. Most scoring guilds bring a minimum of two strikers to pressure the ball, or multiple models that look to dish out damage. At the beginning of each turn we can assess which models are most threatening to us by the amount of influence they have allocated to each player. At that time we can determine which model to try and limit and play accordingly. Later in the turn we can reassess which threats are left on the table. Against 2 Strikers that both have max influence allocated to them, after the first one goes it is no longer threatening that turn so we can focus on mitigating the other striker. The same principle can apply against a bashy team, after there set up models go to set up the take out, we can focus on protecting that model or threatening to go after their player that is going to utilize the set up before that player activates.

Captains are good indicator of threat. If a captain has max influence allocated to them, there is a good chance that they plan to do a lot of work with that influence. The key to playing against captains who are playing the superstar role is to limit their efficiency. Lots of captains that play this way are going to put up VPs every activation, our goal is to limit that amount that they will get. If we give up 2 or 4 victory points to a set up captain is more manageable then allowing a 6 sometimes 8 point activation. Lets look at some examples:

Fillet is a beast, if she is tooled up with the ball she can easily get a 6 point activation. To play against this we want to stay outside of 8 inches of her (jog 7 + melee 1). This makes her charge, sprint, or quick foot, making Fillet spend more influence. If we can restrict where she can go with counter charge is also valuable. Fillet needs to hit blood rain to do a serious amount of damage with each attack so with a defensive stance you might stop that from happening.

Thresher, who is a shadow of his former self, remains the superstar captain of the farmers guild. He requires a harvest marker near his target for don't fear the... and another harvest marker to be safe from all counter attacks. Due to a 5 influence cap, Thresh's damage output falls off when he has to sprint or charge, staying more then 8 inches (jog 5 +melee 3). So if Thresh has the ball he needs to sprint for 1 influence, shoot with 1 influence which leaves 3 influence for attacks. Without don't feat the... he will struggle to do 6 point activation early in the game which gives us more time to control him.

The best way to shut down captains like this is to set up to take them out at the start of the turn so we have effectively 1 turn without having to worry about them. Because sometimes being taken out gives the superstar captains better board position to go score more VPs than they will give up (*cough*) Shark (*cough*).




Having a Plan

The first topic I wanted to talk about is having a plan. In my opinion having a plan is the most important concept to take into a game of guild ball. A plan can save you time on your clock, score more points, and help you become a more rounded player. Due to the nature of Guild Ball's activation mechanics having a structured plan is hard to do with reactionary play. This is also one of the most complex ideas to discuss, but I will explain it in simple steps, Kick-off, overarching turn plan, and what to do if your plan doesn't go as plan.

First and most important is having a plan at kick-off. A strong turn one will put us in a better position for the later turns to take advantage of. As the receiving player the goal of our turn should be to score a goal. To begin with we want to deploy our players so that we can retrieve the ball no matter where they kick off goes. Generally we want to pass the ball around to get easy momentum, then scoring a goal with our last activation This is easier said then done, sometimes we have to live with the fact that a perfect scatter will leave part our team vulnerable. Some teams and captains will play this differently for example: Fillet wants to try and get a six point activation or set up a six point activation the following turn, Ballista alongside hoist will pump out ranged damage, or Obulus will puppet master a key player and farm momentum to casket time a key player in the first activation of the next turn, and so so many more unique examples to cover in this post. As the kicker we want to kick off with the player to put as much pressure on the ball as possible. This is usually accomplished by a striker or a superstar captain. We want to kick the ball into a spot that will bring a player forward in a spot that our team can try and attack for momentum, or by kicking the ball to the striker we think is going to score the turn 1 goal for our opponent. An example of this is in a recent tournament I played brewers while Blaine played his Morticians. He kicked with Scalpel to apply the most pressure on my team and kicked to ball to Friday to ruin my turn one goal. Like receiving each guilds kicking plan is different, and you should play your team according to their strength.

Every turn when I am allocating influence to my players I am thinking what I want to try and accomplish that turn. My plan might be to control a certain player with my control style player, score a goal, form a scrum a pump out as much damage as possible to certain players, or any combination of these sorts of things. I have played blacksmiths a lot recently and my thought process for my plan each turn usually went; which apprentice do is going to do the most work this turn, how many players do I need to apply disarm to, what set up does hearth need to do, does cinder have her influence/does she need her one? In a game against brewers with my blacksmiths I would start by giving ferrite two influence to disarm the two players that I expected to do the most damage, then would give 4 influence to either Iron, Alloy, or both depending how much set up I needed to do and would end by giving cinder 1 and hearth 1 or 2 so she could do the set up. Even more general and not turn or match up specific, our team could have the same plan every turn. For example a Fillet team based around fillet taking six of the influence every turn to do the most work with that influence and the rest of the team supports fillet or is self sufficient (like boar or minx), or an Obulus team isolating a key player from the opponents team and pumping out damage. If you have a plan going into a match up for how the game will progress it will alleviate most of the clock pressure.

This brings me to my last topic, coming up with a plan on the go. Sometimes our vision for how the game is going to play out doesn't happen. It is best to recognize this as soon as possible to give us the most time to switch gears. This is easiest to catch when an important activation that we planned to do one thing doesn't happen because we our dice didn't roll what we expected (for the better or worse). For example if you planned for decimate to hit momentous 2 damage for for attacks and she spikes for her thousand cuts on a player, the rest of the teams influence will reach higher in there playbook so less influence might be invested to take out a player. As a result we might have to adjust our plan so that all our influence gets used and none is wasted. The worse off case is we missed a goal with Flint that we thought for sure would go in, that if Flint used run the length he was out of threat from the rest off the other team and our plan after the goal was to chase the ball down to score a goal again. Now we have to go into damage control mode to protect Flint by shadowing him with Brick and setting a scrum. It is best in Guild ball to always have a plan, but to be flexible with your plan incase an activation doesn’t go our way. The team we are playing only generates a certain amount of influence we can use, which in turn only generates so much momentum to use as well. We never want to allocate any of our limited resources to a player without an idea of what they are reliably going to do with that resource. Some players best quality is that they do something for nothing.

Having a plan is in my opinion the most important concept to take into a game of guild ball. Your plan maybe a stuctured plan of X player will do this, than Y player does that, more general as one turn you might just be trying to score a goal. Sometimes the best plan is to disrupt your opponents plan until they make a mistake for you to capatilize on, or to be super reactionary and take whatever is given to you at that time.

Tuesday, May 15, 2018

Introduction to Sask Ball - A Guild Ball Blog

Greetings people of the Internet, My name is Riley or I go by my forum name Tre. I am from the middle of nowhere Canada, Saskatoon Saskatchewan. I have been involved in the Guild Ball scene in my local area since the beginning of season one. To help newer players learn and get better at the game we love, we wanted to make a podcast/video series of strategies as well as helpful tips and tricks. Until we get that made I wanted to make a blog to post about mine or other people in the Sask Guild Ball Scene, musings, rambling, and rants about our favourite game, Guild Ball.

If you have a suggestion for a blog topic share it with me at TheSaskBall@gmail.com or leave a comment down below.